The Future of Independent Media: A Scenario Thinking Process

In 2004, a group of San Francisco media organizations partnered with Global Business Networks to conduct a scenario planning process about the future of the field of independent media. GBN guides organizations creatively to think through their changing environment by applying scenario planning -- a tool that combines research, creativity and ruthless curiosity in order to imagine possible futures.

As NAMAC Co-Director Helen De Michiel said, "We do not see this project as a way to discover only what the future holds for the producer, or the results of the producers' content. We want to look at the whole picture as an 'ecology' where all involved individuals are part of the bigger scene, move around in it, and participate in it."

DEFINING THE NEW ECOLOGY FOR INDEPENDENT MEDIA

What follows is an excerpt from our findings. The full study will be available here as a PDF and from NAMAC in its "Closer Look" publication series due in Fall 2004.

1. The amount of visual media being created by professionals, committed hobbyists and amateurs is soaring and will continue to grow for the foreseeable future.

2. The range of places and devices where people will receive motion media is growing and will continue to grow, especially at home or though mobile devices designed for personal use.

3. Over the next ten years, broadband internet access will become widely available, becoming a standard way to deliver all kinds of digital media.

4. Video will become a fully integrated part of other types of media online that are not currently video-based, creating new demand and uses for video production.

5. The costs for all the technology associated with media production, distribution and presentation will continue to fall when capability is held constant.

6. The combination of broadband and personal video recorders will change how people consume media.

7. Competition for audience attention will further intensify because of the growing abundance of media products.

8. Only a few show, projects, or products will attract big or mass audiences.

9. Trusted guides to the overwhelming number of media choices -- from recognized expert interpreters to word-of-mouth recommendations -- will become ever more important for individuals making choices, yet the number of possible guides will also grow significantly.

10. Media with a strong, well-defined political point of view will increasingly attract supportive audiences.

11. The next generation of producers and consumers will bring different attitudes, tastes, and assumptions than the ones that prevail among Boomers and Gen-X'ers today.

12. Computer and video gaming will grow more popular as a platform for political, social and artistic expression.

13. Globally interconnected networks will affect the market for media talent, media products, and the scale and scope of audiences.

14. Consolidation among media companies through mergers and acquisitions will continue.